“I believe Pennsylvania to be the number one state that Trump could win and have stolen from him through voter fraud. Pennsylvania has had a lot of voter fraud over the years and giving people unsolicited absentee ballots is literally like giving voter fraud operations steroids.” Trafalgar Group CEO Robert Cahaly
By Victoria Taft Oct 18, 2020 1:31 PM ET
The latest state polling by the Trafalgar Group predicts another win for President Trump in the upper 270’s to low 280’s in the Electoral College, but the CEO highlights a couple of big cautions for Republicans.
In an lengthy interview on the National Review “The Editors” podcast, the Trafalgar Group CEO Robert Cahaly told NR’s Rich Lowry that he predicts Trump will win the battleground states of Georgia, Florida, North Carolina, Texas. He said things are tighter in Wisconsin and Arizona, though Cahaly says Trump has the lead and will “probably win” in Arizona.
A huge red flag is over Pennsylvania, where Cahaly predicts a Trump win, but said the state is ripe for voter fraud.
I believe Pennsylvania to be the number one state that Trump could win and have stolen from him through voter fraud. Pennsylvania has had a lot of voter fraud over the years and giving people unsolicited absentee ballots is literally like giving voter fraud operations steroids. I think it’s the state he’s most likely to win and not get the votes from.
Over at Hot Air, Allahpundit nutshells why Trafalgar enjoys the respect it’s gotten.
They’re the firm that called Trump’s wins in Michigan and Pennsylvania four years ago when nearly every other pollster was predicting Clinton victories, some by blowout margins. (Trafalgar was the only outfit to find Trump ahead in Michigan in any survey taken that year.)
The IBD/TIPP poll of 2016 also predicted a Trump win.
The Trafalgar CEO says conservative voters are five to one less likely to take polls than progressives – worse than even in 2016. He said that reluctance by conservatives to take polls has moved from 4 conservatives for every progressive to 5:1 in just the past few weeks. People who hate Trump are glad to tell anyone, especially a pollster. That’s why he believes so many of the other polls showing a clear Biden win are wrong.